Authors: | Kallandranis, Christos Aljandali, Abdulkader |
Publisher: | Virtus Interpress |
Issue Date: | 1-Jan-2020 |
Journal: | Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets & Institutions |
Volume: | 10 |
Issue: | 2 |
Keywords: | African economies, Exchange rates, Regional integration, Cointegration |
Abstract: | Despite rising interest in African economies, there is little prior research on the determinants of exchange rate movements in the region. This paper examines the monthly exchange rates of the country members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from 1990 to 2010 inclusive. Long-run equilibrium exchange rate models are established, exchange rate determinants are identified, and ex-post forecasts are generated for a period of 18 months (Sekantsi, 2011). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration model is used in this paper, given its statistical advantages over commonly, applied cointegration techniques. Findings show that the ARDL method generates accurate forecasts for eight out of 11 sampled exchange rates. In keeping with earlier literature (e.g., Redda & Muzindusti, 2017; Zerihun & Breitenbach, 2017; etc.), findings suggest that the chances of SADC member countries fulfilling the requirements of a currency union are quite low. This paper marks one of the first attempts in the literature to forecast exchange rates in SADC using the ARDL approach (Pesaran & Shin, 1995). The results would be of interest to policy-makers, researchers and investors. |
ISSN: | 2077-4303 |
DOI: | 10.22495/rgcv10i2p5 |
URL: | https://virtusinterpress.org/Exchange-rate-modelling-in-the-development-community-using-the-ARDL.html |
URI: | https://uniwacris.uniwa.gr/handle/3000/1345 |
Type: | Article |
Department: | Department of Accounting and Finance |
School: | School of Administrative, Economics and Social Sciences |
Affiliation: | University of West Attica (UNIWA) |
Appears in Collections: | Articles / Άρθρα |
CORE Recommender
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.