Tail-Related Risk Measurement and Forecasting in Equity Markets
Authors: Loukeris, Nikolaos 
Eleftheriadis, Iordanis 
Avdoulas, Christos 
Bekiros, Stelios 
Issue Date: 15-Feb-2019
Journal: Computational Economics 
Volume: 53
Issue: 2
Keywords: Expected shortfall, Forecast evaluation, Risk measurement
Abstract: 
Parametric, simulation-based and hybrid methods are utilized to estimate various risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), Conditional VaR and coherent Expected Shortfall. An exhaustive backtesting analysis is performed for London’s FTSE 100 index and a comparative evaluation of the predictability of the investigated models is performed with the use of various statistical tests. We show that optimal tail risk forecasting necessitates that many factors be considered such as asset structure and capitalization and specific market conditions i.e., normal or crisis periods. Specifically, for large capitalization stocks and long investment horizons parametric modeling accounted for relatively better risk estimation in normal quantiles, whilst for short-term trading strategies, the non-parametric methods are more suitable for measuring extreme tail risk of small-cap stocks.
ISSN: 1572-9974
0927-7099
DOI: 10.1007/s10614-017-9766-5
URI: https://uniwacris.uniwa.gr/handle/3000/2192
Type: Article
Department: Department of Business Administration 
School: School of Administrative, Economics and Social Sciences 
Affiliation: University of West Attica (UNIWA) 
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