Trade Balance and Exchange-Rate for a Small Open Economy during the EMS: The Hellenic Case 1983: 1-1995: 12
Authors: Stamatopoulos, Theodoros 
Issue Date: 1-Jan-2001
Journal: European Research Studies Journal 
Volume: 4
Issue: 3-4
Keywords: Optimum currency area, EMS, EMU, Traditional adjustment process for merchandise payments, Granger causality, Integration and cointegration analysis
Abstract: 
We are interested on assessing the effectiveness of the Bank of Greece (BoG) exchange rate policy, to achieve the objective of adjusting balance of payments desequilibrium, during the period 1983: 1-1995: 12. The traditional theory of the balance of payments adjustment process through exchange rate changes is used for this purpose. We found evidence, first, about the doubtful effectiveness of this policy due to the marginal verification of the critical elasticities condition; second, about the success of the exchange rate policy in the short-run, since the monthly data of bilateral exchange rates (USD, DEM, ITL, FRF, GBP, JPY) of the Hellenic Drachma (GRD) Granger cause the respective trade balances; third, about the significant comovement in the series which in the long-run, are driven by the same stochastic trend. We are much aware of the tentative nature of these conclusions. However, our findings suggest that the loss of the exchange rate policy was costly in the case of Hellas because an efficient policy sacrificed by the BoG to the European Central Bank (ECB).
ISSN: 1108-2976
DOI: 10.35808/ersj/68
URI: https://uniwacris.uniwa.gr/handle/3000/1232
Type: Article
Department: Department of Accounting and Finance 
School: School of Administrative, Economics and Social Sciences 
Affiliation: University of West Attica (UNIWA) 
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